We have talked about Ethereum and Dapps that are currently being built on it. We have also talked about the Ethereum Stack Value theory, a concept first created by cryptocurrency investor Tai Zen, in which the new decentralized applications being built on Ethereum add up to Ethereum’s value, overlaying the market cap of each Platform and it’s respective value tokens on top of Ethereum, Tai Zen came up with this process in order to “predict” Ether’s correct value when compared to the market value, since the decentralized applications built on Ethereum need Ether to function. Now, it’s time to take a deeper look into one of these Decentralized Applications: Augur
Augur was one of the most successful I.C.O campaign ever held, gathering over 22 thousand bitcoins and taking the 4th place as one of the most successful ICO ever held, just under the Waves Platform ICO.
Augur is a decentralized prediction market, in which users will be able to buy shares regarding the outcome of a future event. Shares are valued at 1usd, so if a negative share is worth 20 cents and if a positive share is worth 80 cents, there is a 80% probability of said event becoming true, according to the platform. If that event is proven to take place, the positive share holders will receive a full usd for each share bought. Users don’t have to hold on to a share until the event takes place, however, shares can be freely traded until the date of the event. A sports championship such as the recent Euro 2016 is a perfect example of this, in which a user that has bought shares for a low price regarding the probability of Portugal winning the European Championship, can sell those shares for a higher price, even before the final takes place.
Augur was built with 2 main goals:
1 – To correctly predict any future event.
2 – To allow the creation and verification of markets for any specific event by anyone.
Augur was built under the “wisdom of the crowd” premise, which simply means that if you ask the same question to a large number of people, their average answer will always be far more accurate then the answer provided by a specialist. This means we will be able to use the Augur Platform in the same way we might use a weather channel, in which users can simply tune in, pick an event and see the probability of said event taking place. Augur will be like our google crystal ball.
Augur is not the fist prediction market to be created, but it is the first Decentralized one. The word decentralized is being thrown around a lot this days, and sometimes we aren’t able to understand what benefits said decentralization will bring. Augur will allow anyone to create his own market for a future event, no matter how bizarre and farfetched said event may seem, this will empower the Augur community, in a sense that anyone will be able to create a market by providing initial funding and receive monetary rewards from the fees gathered from users that buy and sell shares in that specific event.
Another advantage to the Decentralized model proposed by Augur lays in the verification of the outcome of events. In a centralized prediction markets, users must trust an individual to report the outcome of the event, and individuals can make mistakes or manipulate the information provided to their benefit. In the Decentralized prediction market thousands of Augur token holders (REP) will verify this outcome, making manipulation or error virtually impossible.
So, if you feel like you have a knack for predicting the future you may want to keep your all-seeing eye on Augur.